16.3 Staying Ahead of the Obsolescence Curve
As the 20th century came to a close, MIT's supply chain guru Charles Fine proclaimed the demise of sustainable competitive advantage. He warned, "All advantage is temporary. No capability is unassailable, no lead is uncatchable, no kingdom is unbreachable." Fine argued that, "In order to survive—let alone thrive—companies must be able to anticipate and adapt to change, or face rapid, brutal extinction."1 What does this mean for you? Answer: In today's chaotic and dynamic marketplace, obsolescence is the natural end for all but the most agile and adaptable entities.
The Corporate Challenge
Perhaps you remember corporate icons like A&P, Bethlehem Steel, Circuit City, Compaq Computer, and PanAm. Each dominated its industry. For instance, at its heyday, A&P operated over 15,000 stores—more than any other retailer, ever! A&P made the tagline "Everyday low price" famous. PanAm ushered in modern air travel, launching Boeing's 747. Circuit City was one of Jim Collins elite "Good-to-Great" companies. Aside from their uniquely remarkable success, these companies share an unenviable trait. Each is extinct, having vanished from the competitive landscape.
Great companies—like great products (e.g., the Sony Walkman) and great nations (e.g., Greece and Rome)—have always endured a four-stage life cycle: emergence, growth, maturity, and decline. Competitive threats—e.g., changing customer expectations, tough new rivals, and Technologies or innovations that displace an established technology and shake up an industry.—have always imperiled a company's existence. Over the past two decades, however, globalization, social media, and other "accelerators" have shrunk The series of changes in the life of an entity—e.g., emergence, growth, maturity, and decline. (see Figure 16-1). The result: Companies now face an unrelenting race against obsolescence.
Your Career Challenge
Compressed life cycles don't just afflict products, companies, and countries. They also endanger your career success—and longevity! How serious is the threat, you ask? Consider, for example, Bud LaLonde's cautionary warning that you must spend 10% of your time investing in new skills to avoid becoming obsolete in five years. That's four plus hours a week dedicated to new skill development! Where did LaLonde get his numbers? Answer: From decades of working with senior supply chain executives to benchmark SCM career success.
Now, the bad news: LaLonde shared that warning in the 1990s. By the early 2000s, LaLonde had raised the bar. He noted that the competitive environment had changed—that obsolescence was a greater threat. The result: To avoid becoming "dispensable" in only three years, you needed to invest 20% of your time learning new skills to stay on the cutting edge. 2 Andy Grove, former CEO of Intel, described your career challenge as follows:
Business knows no national boundaries. Capital and work—your work!—can go anywhere on earth. The consequence of all this is painfully simple: If the world operates as one big market, every employee will compete with every person in the world who is capable of doing the same job. There are a lot of them, and many of them are very hungry. . . .
There are two options: Adapt or die. The new environment dictates two rules: First, everything happens faster; second, anything that can be done will be done, if not by you, then by someone else, somewhere. Let there be no misunderstanding: These changes lead to a less kind, less gentle, and less predictable workplace.3
The bottom line: Today's competitive environment is too competitive for you or your company to become complacent. You can't allow the Mental models are the beliefs, ideas, and images that explain the thought or decision-making process about how something works in the real world. that led to success to become rigid and stymie innovation. Instead, you need to recognize that adaptation is the genetic trait of greatest value. You then need to work to cultivate a culture of continuous improvement. As part of this process, you ask, "What do you need to do to stay ahead of the A depiction of how quickly a product or company (or you) are becoming obsolete—i.e., losing market viability.?"
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